Detecting Changes Over Time with Bayesian Change Point Analysis


Wednesday, June 21, 2023


11:15 am


Red Rock Ballroom A


Did my data change after a certain intervention? This is a common question with data observed over time. Classical statistical and engineering approaches include control charts to see if the series falls outside of the normal boundaries of expected data. A Bayesian approach to this problem calculates the probability that the data series changes at every point along the series. Bayesian change point analysis allows the analyst to evaluate a whole series and look where the highest probability of change occurred. Has the financial asset lost value after the recent financial report? Are the healthcare outcomes at this hospital better after our new process to help patients? Did the manufacturing process improve after upgrading the machinery? All these questions and more can be answered with these techniques.

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